OffThePost.org

Interesting stat.

82 games now for Tocchet.

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Shoresy, "It's called a sweater"

Love seeing Hoglander score, especially sweet 3minutes in vs Leafs

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Shoresy, "It's called a sweater"

Hoglander with another and Garland for one. 3-0 after one period and the 3rd and 4th lines are getting it done.

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Shoresy, "It's called a sweater"

Strange, Leafs tie it up 3-3, any other year I'd have assumed the Nucks would lose and turn off the game. This year I still felt confident they would pull out the win, and they did. Glad they didn't lose both to the Leafs.

They also need to keep wracking up the wins as Edmonton is coming on strong. Pretty impressive how that team has turned things around have that horribad first 11 games of the season.

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Shoresy, "It's called a sweater"

Nils Hoglander is on pace for 26 goals averaging 11 minutes a game. All goals at even strength. How is he not getting more time? Give him another 4 minutes a game that's a 35 goal pace without power play time. If I was another GM I'd be calling Alvin to see what it takes to get him in a trade.

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Shoresy, "It's called a sweater"

Well that is timely. CA has a write up asking why Hoglander is not getting any time on second unit powerplay considering how awful they have been. How bad are they?



https://canucksarmy.com/news/patersons- ... -hoglander

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Shoresy, "It's called a sweater"

A friend asked me the other day, "who did I think was the biggest surprise this year on the Canucks." Interesting question as almost every player has over performed expectations. Who would have thought JT Miller would have a career year and especially surprising, start playing defense like he wants a Selke. Myer's still not worth his $6 million but having his best year as a Canuck, and probably gets $3 mil next year when he hits FA? The list goes on.

Its actually easier to ask who has under performed expectation. Myer is still worth his $ 6 million salary, and Kuzmenko has been a huge disappointment. Mikheyev ($4.7 mil); Scoucy ($3.2 mil) Zadorov ($3.7 mil); and Garland ($4.9 mil) are the players playing at about expectations based on salary. After that you have 16 player that are playing above their salary. That is a lot.

Is it a bit of a fluke? PDO would suggest so, but their high rate of high danger chances make the PDO somewhat less relevant. Is Tocchet this good? Or perhaps he's just the right fit for this group of players.

Top positive surprises? Brock Boeser, Dakota Joshua, Tyler Meyers, Hoglander, JT Miller, Ian Cole. All are worthy nominee's but hard to pick just one that stands out more than any other. If forced to, I'd pick Miller. Never, ever would I have thought that Elias Pettersson could have a career year in points, and still be the teams #2 centre to JT Miller.

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Shoresy, "It's called a sweater"

Well Scoucy is out for 5-6 weeks and Tocchet is changing up the defensive pairings. Moving Myers up with Hughes..............this is going to be interesting...........worrisome...........disgusting.................or the biggest surprise of the season.

Not sure what to expect, Myers has been awful the past few years when paired with Hughes and facing top lines. As good as his season has been, I doubt he can handle this but we'll see how long this lasts.

Hughes. Myers.
Zadorov. Hronek.
Cole. Juulsen.

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Shoresy, "It's called a sweater"

There's been talk for awhile regarding Vancouver's interest in Elias Lindholm. I love Lindholm, but he's an FA this year and I don't see how the Nucks have the cap space to sign him next year, and Hronek and Pettersson so I'm not keen on this, even though I believe he'd put the Canucks in serious contention for a SC this year. What they give up would hurt too much in the following years. (the idea of being to run out Pettersson, Miller and Lindholm against McDavid in the playoffs would be so fun. Pettersson is actually a net positive playing against McDavid.)

However it keeps coming back whether its Tanev or Lindholm that Calgary is insisting on Hoglander. Can't blame them, if he was getting 16 minutes a game or pp time he'd be on a 30 goal pace. Watching him play is kinda painful, Aman and Lafferty are creating very little for him, it was all his work in the offensive zone that was making them threatening at all. He needs better partners and definitely capable of at least 2nd line duty on any other team. I think they should try moving Hoglander up to 2nd and moving Mikheyev down to the 4th line. Mikheyev is fast, has great position, but really his hands are not that good. Maybe Hoglander can click with Kuzmenko and get him going. And that's really it, if they can get Kuzmenko going, they have no need to go out and get a 2nd line forward. Worst case scenario, they can increase Hoglanders value by getting him more goals. If they have to trade him, at least get the most they can for him.

I'm really against paying prospects and young players this year for free agents. In 3 or 4 years when their window starts to close I'll be fine with it. For now, unless they can get a 24-28 year old right handed dman capble of playing 1st or 2nd pair with two or more years on their contract I don't think they should give up any of the core 8 high quality youngins.

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Shoresy, "It's called a sweater"

Quinn Hughes is just too damn good for this league. Last year I would have given the edge to Elias Pettersson as the best player on the team. At the beginning of the season I found the conversations about who is better between Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes interesting and to early in their careers to be determined. If they both stay healthy they project as future HHoFamers. I'd even go so far as to say they might become one of the 10 best dmen to ever play the game. Not any longer, Quinn Hughes is going to be among the best ever if he stays healthy

An issue with this team is their PDO of 13.5%. "shooting percentage plus save percentage" their 13.5% is abnormally high historically and the expectation is that it will drop to a more realistic 3 or 4%. However its been stable for awhile now. So have the Nucks found a totally new way to play the game that has never been done before? Seems to me there are 3 possibilities.

1. Its an aberration and its going to drop. I did think so earlier but not so sure now.
2. Rick Tocchet has coached the team in a brand new system that makes PDO less predictable previously?
3. Quinn Hughes factor.

The Nucks are about 44.7% of the league average for shots on goal. Yet 81% for offensive zone time, and 99% in goals scored. They're dominant on goals and weak on shots. The only possible explanation is their dominance in high danger chances. (too cheap to pay one of the stats site to get the high danger chances percentage, but Canucks Army does a break down after every game and despite being out shot they almost always have a higher shot count from high danger areas)

So has Tocchet created a system so unique and confounding that he is able to do what no one else has done before? Allowing his team to dominate high danger chances? Is he a coaching genius? Poke is cringing.....lol

I think its Hughes. Watching him dangle the puck, making competent NHL players look like they should be in junior hockey. He controls the puck so well, he is able to create an abnormal rate of opportunity for his team mates to gain possession in high danger areas. His tight edge work and turn on a dime, combined with his stick control and his hockey intelligence allow him to do things no other defencemen does. I can't think of any dman since Bourque or Lidstrom that I've been so in awe of. And quite frankly Quinn is more fancy, and more daring out there and he gets away with it cause he is so damn good.

So no, I don't think Tocchet is new age genius coach. It might be that the PDO comes crashing down to reality. What I'm leaning to is, that Hughes is just so truly exceptional that he blows reliable stats away. This player may become recognized as one of the top 5 dman of all time. And that PDO stats are not relevant when you have that level of skill. He most definitely deserves to be in conversation for the Hart this year. As good as Miller, Pettersson and Demko are, Hughes is far more important to the team than any of them.

I still expect PDO to come down, but I've been expecting it for a couple months now. If it doesn't though, or only drops a wee bit there has to be a reason, and I think its Hughes.

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Shoresy, "It's called a sweater"

There was a famous tweet by a TSN stats guy about the first-year Roy coached Avs in 2013-2014 Avs that said "The things Colorado does well results in a 106.7 PDO, in my opinion" and then Colorado proceeded to of course drop off, still win their division off the PDO heater, and then lose to the Wild in the first round.

Some combination of all 3. PDO will always drop, but by how much I think is the question(as you said you expect in your last sentence). Hughes(and/or Tocchet) might be able to sustain a higher PDO than average but not at a historical level I don't think.

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Thanks Chuck, E.L. and Harmy!

The Canucks are going for it baby! Allvin extended, Lindholm acquired. You love to see it, an Edmonton/Vancouver playoff collision course would be epic.

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If we were going to trade for any forward, I did want it to be Lindholm. I'm okay with Kuzmeko going, and the first rounder, but Brzustewicz was one of the 8 prospects I felt the Canucks should not trade if they wanted to keep a 5 year window open. They should only have traded him for a player with some term.The kid is having an absolutely incredible season in the OHL. Harmy is going to like him.

As for going for the cup, I have concerns about the Canucks D. I've said it again and again about needing a better 3rd than Ian Cole. However its dawned on me, this defense looks really, really playoff capable. Scoucy Zadorov, Meyers, Cole are friggin huge.When the refs pocket their whistles this dmen group may just excel.

As for McDavid. I believe Pettersson still has a positive goal differential vs McDavid. But when you can throw any of Pettersson, Lindhom and this years long shot Selke honoree JT Miller at him I like the Canucks chances. Although Skinner is a bit worrisome, he's been pretty awesome for a couple months.

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Shoresy, "It's called a sweater"

I like this move for Vancouver, even though Lindholm appears to be in a very troubling decline. Hopefully most of that was just languishing in a Calgary franchise that was slowly dying on the vine.

It now gives Tocchet three very versatile forwards in Lindholm, Pettersson, and Miller, all three of whom have logged serious minutes both at center and wing. Not sure how it all shakes out, they could line them up 1-2-3 down the middle, or they could tandem them in many different combos, or, hey they could even just line them up at even strength as one "superline".

Even if it doesn't work out, they didn't really give up too much outside of that first rounder. Admittedly I know nothing of the prospects they gave up, but I imagine their big trade chips are Podkolzin and Hoglander and they didn't include either of those guys.

The possible downside of this is that Lindholm really has just busted a gasket and just isn't anywhere near the player he was just two years ago. Thing is...he cannot drive his own line, whenever he's been asked to do that, his numbers plummet. The good news is that he won't have to do that in Vancouver. But if that happens, they don't have to re-sign him. Hopefully Allvin doesn't rush things.

Lindholm to me is pure rental. I can't imagine they can resign him and sign Hronek and Pettersson both. It will take some magic to make that work.

Here's what I think they should do.

Mikahyev-Miller-Boeser
Hoglander-Lindhom-Pettersson
Joshua-Bleuger-Garland
PDG-Suter-Lafferty

Aman

those 3rd and 4th lines will be excellent defensively. And contribute offensively. its been over a decade since the Canucks had that kind of depth. I'm really hoping Tocchet gives these lines 2 more minutes a night, starts reducing the work load for the top lines in prep for the playoffs.

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Shoresy, "It's called a sweater"

Lindholm is also in the all stars games. That makes 7 Canucks this year.................if you count Tocchet.

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Shoresy, "It's called a sweater"

Today's Line Rushes.

Suter-Miller-Boeser
Mikheyev-Pettersson-Lindholm
Joshua-Blueger-Garland
Höglander-Åman-Lafferty

Hughes-Hronek
Cole-Myers
Zadorov-Juulsen


Okay not surprised about Pettersson and Lindholm but Suter on the first line?? Below average foot speed, way below average shot speed. I like him cause he's smart. He plays above expectations because he is smart but I think he's much better suited to a 3rd or 4th line centre role than 1st line winger. And why the hell won't Tocchet give Hoglander a fair chance..........this is just getting to be puzzling. Hoglander does have speed, shot and serious puck skills. Is a pest and tenacious on the puck. I just don't get how Suter gets bumped ahead of him.

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Shoresy, "It's called a sweater"

Rest In Peace, Ryp. Only two years old.

https://twitter.com/NHL/status/17549971 ... odd-makers

How can the Canuck's betting odds be 8th in the NHL at this point? I don't really mind the Oilers and Avs being ranked ahead of them, and perhaps even the Bruins but Jets, Carolina, Rangers and Panthers?

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Shoresy, "It's called a sweater"

They are still a crazy statistical anomaly. I know people still think regression is happening, and it may yet happen, just not this year.

But here's a prime example--I believe the Canucks are first in the league in scoring off the rush, yet they're LAST in the league in generating chances off the rush. Basically it's been explained to me that Tocchet's system doesn't really encourage guys jumping early, but the few chances they DO go for it, it's going straight in the net every time.

It can't possibly all be a fluke at this point, but people are still skeptical. Understandable to a point, but the truth of the matter is that we don't have a clear cut #1 team in the league this year. Every single team in the league at or near the top has some serious deficiencies.

Also, I love the mix up front, but I don't trust that defense at all past the first pairing, especially the Chaos Boys wearing 57 and 91. Get just one more legit top four guy and I might change my tune.