Avs sign Reto Berra to a 3-year extension before he even plays a single game. He's the #3 goalie for the rest of the season, but will get a start against (I think) Winnipeg.
Anyhow, the advanced stats guys obviously don't like the Avs.
https://twitter.com/mc79hockeyQuote:
Bet the regression on Colorado. Big time.
Colorado have a) a better goal dif than you'd expect given their Corsi%, b) more reg points than goal dif and c) have won 67% of OT/SO.
All of those are things that regress hard.
That's fair. Even drunk on the burgundy Kool-Aid as I am, I have to admit the Avs have had
uncanny luck this year. Got into a Twitter discussion with another fancy stats guy (@TseTse_Fly) who pointed out the 2011-12 Avs under Sacco actually had very good possession stats, but terrible luck (PDO). That was the year basically everything Jamie McGinn and Steve Downie threw at the net went in, and no one else on the roster could buy a friggin' goal. He went on to say he thought Sacco did a better job of deployment than Roy. I can't really argue that, though I think the rather unconventional use of Ryan O'Reilly has paid off in spades. In a way, O'Reilly and Duchene have been this year's Modano/Lehtinen, with one guy making the other guy's job easier, and vice versa. Still, I wouldn't mind him being a little more conventional from time to time and trying out a checking line of Landeskog-O'Reilly-Talbot or something like that.
In any event, I still say the Avs are doing things a lot better defensively this year than they did last year despite the terrible possession stats (they're not blocking as many shots, but they clear rebounds and exit the zone with a lot more efficiency) and that with a better defense, those Corsi/Fenwick numbers should improve. Right now the D is way too slow and full of NHL fringe players.
The good news is from what Roy says he's aware the team has been a tad lucky this year and has been bailed out a ton by Varlamov. I'm not sure how they're going to address defensive deficiencies, I just hope they don't do something crazy like throw big money at Brooks Orpik or worse, trade for Jack Johnson.