OffThePost.org

Is there an Advanced Hockey Stats for Dummies book yet? If not, y'all should get on that before someone else does.

I'm a fairly smart person in general, if I do say so myself, and I have a decent understanding of scientific stats (I do some at work). But some of the names and adjustments are fucking up my understanding of some advanced stats.

One of you explain to me the adjustments made in this article, and if it sounds like complete BS or not: http://www.lighthousehockey.com/2014/9/ ... djustments

I get Corsi in general.

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Posting your political views on social media is like sticking your head up your ass & whispering: You're just as likely to change someone's mind, and you'll always come out looking like a shithead.

That was actually my wife's job when she worked for John Wiley and Sons. She acquired Dummies titles, set up authors/editors/etc. Acquisitions Editor.

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Thanks Chuck, E.L. and Harmy!

Well if she contacts her replacement and sets you guys up, I deserve a finder's fee, and some credit for being the Dummy who got this ball rolling.

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Posting your political views on social media is like sticking your head up your ass & whispering: You're just as likely to change someone's mind, and you'll always come out looking like a shithead.

http://www.hockeyabstract.com/book

EDIT: That was the first edition, and some work I did was cited in there.

I have yet to purchase the second edition, which is here:

http://www.hockeyabstract.com/2014edition

Rob is the guy who interviewed me a couple years ago in front of the Gordie Howe statue in Saskatoon. I know I posted that video on here somewhere.

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Injustice? Cobain died and Eddy Fucking Vedder lived to haunt us with his shitty fucking voice, trite lyrics and his Eddy Vedderness.



- Ancient Chinese Proverb

There are two new kids on the block in the wake of the Extra Skater going down.

War On Ice seems the most likely to replace ES' individual game data. They've also extrapolated some fancystats from the pre-Behind the Net era (which began in 2007-08 when NHL.com first used its current play-by-play format). These aren't necessarily Fenwick numbers, however, they are generally just Shots on Goal %. Still, gets you a good idea of how players did from 2002-07. (The 03/04 Flames were legit, but the 05/06 Hurricanes were a mess 5 on 5, luckily for them special teams meant more that year than any other). WOI also lets you download tables to your own hard drive.

http://war-on-ice.com/

Progressive Hockey has some real cool bells and whistles, though. They have stats for line combos (currently only C-W-W combos, not one where two listed C's play together yet but that's coming). There's also a measurement of Expected Goals For % based on historical shooting percentages and line utilization (Quality of Teammates and Zone Starts being the major driving force behind this).

If you use Expected Goals For on the line combos, last year's top line is Crosby with Kunitz and Dupuis, expected to produce 63.7% of the goals when they're out there at 5 on 5 (they actually recorded an astonishing 75.8% due to a high on ice SV% which is really shocking with MAF back there). Marchand-Bergeron-Smith for Boston was the second best line at 62.4%, while the third best line was a bit of a surprise: Florida's line of Sean Bergenheim (a fancystat darling), rookie Sasha Barkov, and OTP favourite Bad Brad Boyes at 60.7%.

http://www.progressivehockey.com/

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Injustice? Cobain died and Eddy Fucking Vedder lived to haunt us with his shitty fucking voice, trite lyrics and his Eddy Vedderness.



- Ancient Chinese Proverb

Bob McKenzie reveals how Corsi REALLY got its name:

http://www.tsn.ca/talent/mckenzie-the-s ... e-1.100011

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Oh wow that really is very funny.

Sask....word on the street is the Flames need someone to do their stats!

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No AI has been used in the making of this post

Pretty sure Burke will die before he gives into the Corsi monster.

Word was the Flames already hired a guy during the summer. The actual GM, not Burke, requested it and the Flames had a guy run the Alberta Analytics conference. Burke may not trust it but he's pretty alone there in Calgary from the sounds of things.

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Injustice? Cobain died and Eddy Fucking Vedder lived to haunt us with his shitty fucking voice, trite lyrics and his Eddy Vedderness.



- Ancient Chinese Proverb

Not really and advanced stat at all but had to stick it somewhere. Teams by weight, height and age.......and holy shit is NJ ever old

http://mirtle.blogspot.ca/2014/10/2014-15-nhl-teams-by-height-weight-and.html

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Shoresy, "It's called a sweater"

The post-Extra Skater era is a bit of a minefield right now.... I already posted Progressive Hockey and War On Ice, which join the old staples Hockey Analysis, Behind the Net, Shift Chart, and Nice Time on Ice... but wait, there's more!

Natural Stat Trick: http://naturalstattrick.com/
Hockey Stats: http://hockeystats.ca/

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Injustice? Cobain died and Eddy Fucking Vedder lived to haunt us with his shitty fucking voice, trite lyrics and his Eddy Vedderness.



- Ancient Chinese Proverb

The legendary Vic Ferrari - the Martin Luther of hockey analytics, if you will - has been hired by the Capitals. What say ye of Brooks Orpik?

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I'm guessing the Avs will be the last ones to join the party.

Certainly no longer Burke's Leafs

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/maple-leafs-bet-big-on-big-data-with-analytics-partnership/article21119849/

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Shoresy, "It's called a sweater"

I'm going through last year's data and have a preliminary conclusion on why Fenwick beats out Corsi for predictive power: it's actually shot quality, not because it factors in shot blocking as a skill. Fenwick attempts are from a closer distance than Corsi ones, as the proportion of events is skewed more to forwards in Fenwick than in Corsi.

In lamens terms, d-men have a lot more shots blocked than forwards do. So the reason Fenwick is better is because it's a large sample of closer shots than Corsi has.

Basically, shot quality is custom built into Fenwick.

The Canucks, BTW, took way too many ES shot attempts from their D last year. So far they're the worst distribution of the teams I've worked. The Habs are the most forward heavy of the teams I tracked.

I bet if you just did Corsi by forwards (for vs against) it'd be very accurate, maybe more so than Fenwick.

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Injustice? Cobain died and Eddy Fucking Vedder lived to haunt us with his shitty fucking voice, trite lyrics and his Eddy Vedderness.



- Ancient Chinese Proverb

This might be both timely and useful for you. http://canucksarmy.com/2014/10/16/adjusted-save-percentage-measuring-the-impact-defense-has-on-goaltending-statistics

And even if it doesn't help, still fun too look at a metric that makes Nabakov look really good which means the Isles d-corps was even worse then everyone thought.

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Shoresy, "It's called a sweater"

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/30-t ... efencemen/





Look at the acceleration on Tavares now. His biggest knock on entering the league was his skating. Ovechkin and Karlsson...wow.

I thought it was funny when Datsyuk was in the fastest skater competition at the All-Star game one year. Top speed is not his thing. Stops and starts with the puck, and shifting direction/lateral, incredible.

I'm curious about the acceleration/top speed on Helm, Nyquist and Tatar.

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Thanks Chuck, E.L. and Harmy!

Snow was recently quoted saying what makes Tavares so great is what he does in his unofficial practice time: Work on his weaknesses. Snow said lots of guys like to "work on" their strengths, to show how good they are at that aspect of the game, whereas Tavares works on whatever his known weaknesses are, so he gets better all around. He's worked on his skating every summer and it's showing. He's got an MVP season or two coming up. I just hope they're still with the Isles.

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Posting your political views on social media is like sticking your head up your ass & whispering: You're just as likely to change someone's mind, and you'll always come out looking like a shithead.

Same with Crosby. He wasn't the greatest on faceoffs when he came into the league, and he worked on the a ton. He also thought he needed to be more of a threat to shoot and score, and worked on that. I think that was around the time when he hit 51 goals(thought it wasn't like there was anything wrong with his goal totals prior to that).

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Thanks Chuck, E.L. and Harmy!